Second-quarter earnings results from publicly traded waste and recycling companies are providing clear signals on industry trends and reshaping guidance for year-end performance.
Casella reported strong Q2 results, with revenue up 23.4% and adjusted EBITDA up 19.5% year-over-year. Solid waste revenues were up 14.9% year over year while pricing was up 5.0%, driven by 4.9% collection price growth and 5.8% disposal price growth. Organic growth was fueled by performance in Casella’s legacy Northeast footprint and increased landfill volumes year-over-year. The company completed three acquisitions totaling $72 million in Q2. Casella announced that CEO John Casella will step down in 2026, transitioning to executive chairman, with President Ned Coletta set to succeed him as CEO.
GFL delivered 9.5% top-line revenue growth and expanded its adjusted EBITDA margin by 230 basis points, excluding the impact of its 2024 divestiture. Core pricing increased 5.8%, complemented by a 2.5% lift from positive volume. The Company remains committed to driving industry-leading growth while enhancing adjusted free cash flow conversion through continued platform optimization. During the quarter, GFL invested $33 million in three acquisitions.
Republic, year-over-year, posted 4.6% total revenue growth and an 8.2% increase in adjusted EBITDA, with solid waste revenue up 5.5%. Hurricane debris cleanup in the Carolinas and wildfire debris cleanup in California provided a significant tailwind to landfill volumes. Republic’s average recycled commodity price was $149 per ton in Q2, down $24 year-over-year; however, recycling revenue rose slightly, supported by higher volumes at polymer centers and the reopening of a West Coast facility. Management credited the performance to disciplined pricing ahead of cost inflation and consistent execution of its operational plan.
Waste Connections exceeded its quarterly outlook, with revenue up 7.1%, solid waste revenue rising 5.4%, and adjusted EBITDA growing 7.5% year-over-year, despite headwinds from lower-than-expected contributions from higher-margin, commodity-related activities, continued economic sluggishness, and tariff-related uncertainties. Strong employee retention, record-low safety incidents, and 6.6% core solid waste pricing drove roughly 70 basis points of underlying solid waste margin expansion. The company has already completed an exceptional year of acquisitions, adding roughly $200 million in annualized revenue.
WM remained focused on customer service, cost optimization, and innovation to drive differentiation and growth, resulting in second-quarter revenue growth of 19.0% and an 18.9% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA. Solid waste revenue rose 17.5%, fueled by strong organic growth and margin expansion in the collection and disposal business. The company achieved its best-ever operating expense margin, with MSW volumes up 4.5% year-over-year and additional growth from special waste related to wildfire cleanup in California.
What the Public Companies Expect for the Remainder of 2025
- Casella raised its full-year revenue guidance following strong cash flow performance and reaffirmed its guidance range for Adjusted EBITDA. The company remains focused on strengthening its eastern seaboard investments while pursuing new opportunities, with its 2025 acquisition pipeline representing over $500 million in annualized revenue potential.
- GFL increased its revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance on stronger-than-expected organic performance, now anticipating slightly positive volume growth and approximately 5.5% pricing for the year. The company’s robust M&A pipeline supports confidence in meeting or exceeding 2025 capital deployment targets. GFL also expects to complete the sale of a significant stake in GIP in Q3 2025.
- Republic lowered full-year revenue guidance by $175 million amid weaker commodity prices and volumes. While the Company maintained its adjusted EBITDA outlook, the recent strikes and extended picket lines by several chapters of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters could reduce 2025 adjusted EBITDA by $25–$50 million.
- Waste Connections narrowed its 2025 guidance to the lower end of the original range for revenue and adjusted EBITDA but remains positioned for upside from additional acquisitions, commodity-related activity, and solid waste volumes. The company expects to close $100–200 million in acquisitions by year-end or early 2026 and is considering accelerating certain fleet purchases in 2025 to mitigate potential 2–3% cost increases from 2026 tariffs on truck bodies and chassis.
- WM lowered its 2025 revenue guidance following a decline in recycled commodity prices, which significantly affects its low-margin recycling brokerage business, and reduced collection and disposal volumes in Q1 due to the harsh winter weather. The company now projects commodity prices of approximately $80 per ton, down from the prior estimate of $85 per ton.
The public waste companies closed the first half of the year with strong revenue and EBITDA growth, despite lower recycled commodity prices and tariff-induced uncertainties. With consistent core pricing, continued margin expansion, and active M&A pipelines, the sector remains strategically positioned to achieve its 2025 guidance.
