Fourth-quarter earnings from the publicly traded waste and recycling companies reveal industry trends and provide insight into 2026 outlook. The five companies spent a total of $555 million on acquisitions in the quarter and $3.25 billion on acquisitions in 2025.
Casella Waste Systems (NASDAQGS: CWST)
Casella delivered a strong close to 2025, reporting fourth-quarter revenue growth of 9.7% and a 12.6% increase in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year. Solid waste revenue rose 9.9% supported by disciplined pricing initiatives that drove a 4.9% overall price increase, including 5.0% growth in collection pricing and 4.9% growth in disposal pricing.
Top line performance benefited from the carry forward impact of recent acquisitions, sustained pricing strength across the collection and disposal lines, and continued momentum in Resource Solutions, particularly within National Accounts.
Casella acquired nine businesses in fiscal year 2025 with approximately $115 million in annualized revenue, with approximately another $30 million added with the closing of the previously announced Mountain State Waste acquisition on January 1, 2026.
GFL Environmental (NYSE: GFL)
GFL posted 7.3% year-over-year revenue growth, supported by continued strength in core pricing and disciplined operational execution. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 30.2%, a 110-basis point increase from the prior period when excluding the impact of the company’s 2024 divestiture activities.
Pricing remained a key driver of performance, with core pricing up 6.4%. This helped offset softer operational metrics, including overall volume declines of 2.3% in Q4 and negative surcharges of 0.6%. Despite the fourth-quarter dip, full-year volumes increased 0.5%, reflecting steadier performance across the broader 2025 period.
M&A activity also remained robust. GFL deployed $267.9 million in acquisitions during Q4 2025, signaling continued commitment to consolidating high-quality regional operators and strengthening its market position.
Republic Services (NYSE: RSG)
Republic Services reported 2.2% total revenue growth year-over-year in Q4 2025, supported by 0.9% organic growth and 1.3% growth from acquisitions. The company’s core solid waste business remained a key driver, with solid waste revenue up 4.2% year-over-year.
While volumes declined 1.0%, Republic continued to demonstrate strong operating leverage. The company generated a 3.3% increase in adjusted EBITDA and achieved 30 basis points of margin expansion, underscoring resilient pricing, disciplined cost control, and effective mitigation of lower recycling commodity values. Average recycled commodity pricing was $112 per ton, down $41 per ton year-over-year.
Republic also remained active on the acquisition front, deploying $90 million in Q4 2025 toward targeted solid waste and recycling transactions that enhance its market density and operational efficiency.
Waste Connections (NYSE: WCN)
Waste Connections outperformed its Q4 2025 outlook, delivering 5.0% year-over-year revenue growth, including 4.5% growth in solid waste. The company generated 8.7% year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA, reflecting strong operating execution across its network.
Core pricing remained a significant driver, increasing 6.4%, which more than offset a 2.7% volume decline. This price-led mix contributed to approximately 110 basis points of margin expansion, supported by ongoing operational improvements and disciplined cost management.
Waste Connections also continued its strategic M&A program, investing $190.3 million in acquisitions during Q4 2025, consistent with its long-standing focus on acquiring high-quality, market-dense solid waste operators.
WM (NYSE: WM)
WM maintained its focus on operational discipline, a diversified customer base, and the continued expansion of its sustainability‑driven businesses, delivering 7.1% revenue growth and a 15.7% increase in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year.
Solid waste revenue rose 3.7%, supported by 6.0% collection and disposal core price and 3.8% yield, as WM continues to prioritize pricing that reflects the quality of its service and enhances customer lifetime value.
The collection and disposal business achieved an adjusted operating EBITDA margin of 39.0%, driven by technology-enabled efficiency gains, improved asset network utilization, and disciplined execution on price‑cost spread.
WM invested $1 million in acquisitions during Q4 2025, consistent with its targeted, returns‑focused approach to capital allocation.
2026 Outlook
- Casella Waste Systems expects revenues to be between $1.970 billion and $1.990 billion, and adjusted EBITDA to be between $455 million – $465 million. Casella’s acquisition pipeline remains robust, with attractive opportunities to further expand and densify its platform in 2026.
- GFL Environmental projects revenue to reach $5.147 billion in 2026 supported by core pricing in the mid 5% range. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be about $1.574 billion and adjusted free cash flow is expected to be about $860 million. Dovigi said the company could spend as much as $1.1 billion to $1.5 billion on M&A in 2026. The company’s strategy remains focused on tuck-in acquisitions in markets where it can feed its post-collection assets.
- Republic Services anticipates full year revenue to be between $17.050 billion and $17.150 billion, and adjusted EBITDA to be between $5.475 billion to $5.525 billion. Republic expects to invest approximately $1 billion in acquisitions in 2026 and as of February 17, 2026, Republic has spent approximately $400 million.
- Waste Connections expects revenue to be in the range of $9.900 billion to $9.950 billion and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $3.300 billion to $3.325 billion. So far in 2026, Waste Connections already closed on about $20 million in acquisitions the first week of February
- WM’s outlook for growth in 2026 is driven by expectations of continued strength in the solid waste business, ongoing optimization of Healthcare Solutions, and increased contributions from sustainability growth investments. WM expects revenues between $26.425 billion – $26.625 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $8.150 billion – $8.250 billion. WM expects to return to its typical $100 million to $200 million range for M&A spending in 2026.
Across the group, major public waste operators delivered steady price-led growth in Q4 despite continued volume softness, reflecting disciplined execution and resilient demand in core solid waste. Each company framed 2026 as a year of accelerating contributions from pricing, operational efficiency, and M&A, with several benefiting from expanding footprints in faster-growing southern and central markets. Collectively, the sector enters 2026 with stronger margins, improved cost visibility, and expectations for gradually improving volume trends as economic conditions stabilize.
