With the release of first-quarter earnings, publicly traded waste and recycling companies are offering meaningful insights into the current state of the industry and their expectations for its future trajectory. Growth strategies, M&A activity, and key indicators around pricing and volume remain in sharp focus.
Casella delivered another strong quarter, with revenue up 22.3% and adjusted EBITDA up 21.7% year-over-year. Solid waste revenues were up 25.9% year over year while pricing was up 5.6%, driven by 5.8% collection price growth and 5.5% disposal price growth. The company successfully closed four acquisitions, adding approximately $50 million in annualized revenues. Operationally, Casella continues to make progress on initiatives to expand their fleet automation, onboard computing, internalize incremental volume in their landfills, and improve employee retention.
GFL experienced top line revenue growth of 9.0% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 13.8%, excluding the results of GFL Environmental Services. Results were driven by acquisitions, divestitures, and organic growth, supported by pricing strategies and changes in volume. These gains were partially offset by inflation and labor wage pressures. During the quarter, GFL used the proceeds from the sale of their Environmental Services business to materially de-lever their balance sheet to a Net Leverage of 3.1x, the lowest in the Company’s history.
Republic also saw top-line growth, with total revenue increasing 3.8% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 9% year-over-year. Solid waste revenue increased 3.5% year-over-year. The Company attributes its performance to differentiated capabilities, a 94% customer retention rate, and positive momentum in its Net Promoter Score, factors that helped offset top-line headwinds from severe winter weather and ongoing softness in cyclical volumes. Moody’s upgraded Republic’s credit rating to A3, which recognizes the stability of the Company’s financials. With respect to capital allocation, Republic invested $826 million in strategic acquisitions during the first quarter.
Waste Connections delivered a strong start to 2025, driven by price-led organic growth in solid waste and supported by active acquisition efforts. The Company saw revenue grow 7.5%, solid waste revenue increase 5.5%, and adjusted EBITDA grow 9.5% year-over-year. Strong operational execution drove core solid waste pricing of 6.9%. Despite volume headwinds from prolonged weather disruptions across several markets, the company achieved an adjusted EBITDA margin of 32%. Year-to-date acquisitions have already added over $125 million in annualized revenue.
WM continues to deliver disciplined revenue growth and cost optimization within its core business, while advancing sustainability-focused investments and creating value from the Stericycle acquisition. These efforts contributed to first-quarter revenue growth of 16.7% and a 12.2% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA. Solid waste revenue rose 4.4% compared to the same period last year, driven by strong pricing across commercial collection, transfer stations, and landfill operations.
What the Public Companies Expect for the Remainder of 2025
Amid tariff pressures and macroeconomic uncertainty, the waste sector stood out this earnings season by reaffirming 2025 guidance while other industries issued profit warnings or pulled forecasts.
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- Casella reaffirmed their guidance for 2025 stating the business is operating ahead of their plan in 2025. The Company has an active mergers & acquisitions pipeline exceeding $500 million in revenues.
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- GFL’s strength of their first quarter results reinforces the Company’s confidence in achieving their full year guidance, and they look forward to updating investors on the Company’s outlook when they report their second quarter results.
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- Republic confirmed their financial guidance for 2025 and acquisition investment plan of ~$1 billion spend. By the end of 2025, Republic expects a total of seven RNG projects to commence operations, add more than 150 EVs to their fleet, and have more than 30 facilities with charging capabilities.
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- Waste Connections is on track for another active year of acquisitions, supported by strong seller interest across its footprint and a healthy debt-to-EBITDA leverage of 2.3x. Revenue in Q2 is estimated to be ~$2.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin is estimated to be ~32.7%.
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- WM stated their first quarter results, as well as the strength and resiliency of their business model, gives them confidence that the Company is on pace to achieve their 2025 outlook. WM remains confident in their volume outlook for 2025 because their special waste pipelines remain strong, service intervals remain positive, and expect fire volumes in Southern California to continue through at least the end of the third quarter.
The public waste companies are entering midyear with momentum, healthy margins, and disciplined capital deployment. With stable pricing, active M&A pipelines, and continued investment in infrastructure and innovation, the sector remains well-positioned for durable growth in 2025.
